Growing up in California, it seemed to me California is unique in just how many people were living in what was basically a desert. Places like Los Angeles, Bakersfield, and Modesto really shouldn't exist and only do because of huge reservoirs and irrigation systems. As it turns out however, California isn't alone in this unusual characteristic, however.
As reported by National Geographic, a new study out of Columbia University's Earth Institute has used climate models to predict changes in rainfall and snowpack in the northern hemisphere over the next century. Including areas like the American West, the Middle East, Central Asia, and southern Europe, the scientists concluded that there is a global 67% risk of less water available from snowpack by 2060; however, certain areas, including California are worse off than others. Additionally, the team did not account for rising populations and water demands as well as the ecological needs of river basins, thus we can expect these to be the most conservative estimates.
First off, the reason Mankin and his team looked at snowpack is that snow, unlike rain, creates a more long-term and positive effect on water supply. While yes rain can be captured in aquifer, lakes, and reservoirs, only some of it can. If snow falls instead, it often gathers into snowpacks from which it melts slowly, trickling down a more steady supply of water.
Now, the regions identified as having that California dream of water susceptibility are as follows: the California Central Valley, the Colorado River Basin, the Rio Grande Basin, the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Southern Europe and North Africa, and the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.
In the California Central Valley, with the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins, 95% of the team's trials resulted in snowmelt falling short of demand. This will impact over 11 million people already suffering from California's worst drought in recorded history.
In the Colorado River Basin, another 11 million people are at risk with a decline in snowmelt in 74 percent of trials.
Further to the east, in the Rio Grande Basin on the border of Mexico, 16 million are experiencing the same risk as in California.
Outside of North America and with a significantly greater population, the river basins of the Indus and the Ganges are home to 966 million people and have snowpack declines probability of 37 percent and 63 percent, respectively.
In the western Mediterranean with numerous river basins like the Ebro-Duero basin in Iberia, there is again a 95 percent probability of decreased snowpack. Likewise, in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, the same probability is seen. This region has some impacts already seen, with reduced water supply a possible cause of the recent conflict in Syria.
Ultimately, this new study shows a need for humanity as a whole, and not just specific nations, to begin rethinking the way we use water or, rather, the way we view it entirely.
As reported by National Geographic, a new study out of Columbia University's Earth Institute has used climate models to predict changes in rainfall and snowpack in the northern hemisphere over the next century. Including areas like the American West, the Middle East, Central Asia, and southern Europe, the scientists concluded that there is a global 67% risk of less water available from snowpack by 2060; however, certain areas, including California are worse off than others. Additionally, the team did not account for rising populations and water demands as well as the ecological needs of river basins, thus we can expect these to be the most conservative estimates.
First off, the reason Mankin and his team looked at snowpack is that snow, unlike rain, creates a more long-term and positive effect on water supply. While yes rain can be captured in aquifer, lakes, and reservoirs, only some of it can. If snow falls instead, it often gathers into snowpacks from which it melts slowly, trickling down a more steady supply of water.
Now, the regions identified as having that California dream of water susceptibility are as follows: the California Central Valley, the Colorado River Basin, the Rio Grande Basin, the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Southern Europe and North Africa, and the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.
In the California Central Valley, with the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins, 95% of the team's trials resulted in snowmelt falling short of demand. This will impact over 11 million people already suffering from California's worst drought in recorded history.
In the Colorado River Basin, another 11 million people are at risk with a decline in snowmelt in 74 percent of trials.
Further to the east, in the Rio Grande Basin on the border of Mexico, 16 million are experiencing the same risk as in California.
Outside of North America and with a significantly greater population, the river basins of the Indus and the Ganges are home to 966 million people and have snowpack declines probability of 37 percent and 63 percent, respectively.
In the western Mediterranean with numerous river basins like the Ebro-Duero basin in Iberia, there is again a 95 percent probability of decreased snowpack. Likewise, in the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, the same probability is seen. This region has some impacts already seen, with reduced water supply a possible cause of the recent conflict in Syria.
Ultimately, this new study shows a need for humanity as a whole, and not just specific nations, to begin rethinking the way we use water or, rather, the way we view it entirely.